Down. Don’t be mistaken by the strong opening of 2009. More bad news will come and although the market was indifferent about them during December it is unlikely that investors will continue risk their money.

You can check the options prices to see the direction. At the moment the FTSE100 is 4448. The 4000 put for March will cost you 152 points, while the 4800 call for March is just 109 to buy although the FTSE is closer to the call than the put! This means one thing, the direction is down.

How much down? This is the million dollar question. It is all depends how bad the news will be.