Archive for February, 2009

I’ve bought yesterday another oil share – Royal Dutch Shell I am following this share for long time and I’ve told to myself that if it goes below £15 to I would buy it. And this is what has happened on Friday. I’ve bought it at 1482 for long investment.

The good thing about the current economic crices is that you can find good companies cheap. The way I see it is that we are not at the bottom yet but we are not so far from there. So I rather start and buy shares that I’ve wanted for long time in cheap price. Other companies that I am looking to buy are Tesco, Google, Microsoft, BA & BT. All of them are closing down to the price that I would consider buying them.

Royal Dutch Shell just did it on Friday and I am quite happy that they are now part of my protfolio.

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Hi all,

After black Monday where the Dow hit a new low, it seems that the market is searching for direction. It moves up and down between 7150 to 7400 and change direction very quickly.

This is a good market for short trade because no matter which direction you will choose there is a good chance that if it went against you, it will come back very soon (in a matter of hours in fact). You can see it clear on the graph:

it is the same story with the FTSE. The market is on hold and tries to learn what Obama will do next. But it seems that every time that Obama says something the Dow is down. It is not a bad strategy to sell when he speaks you just need to know his agenda.

I think that the Dow will test a new low around 6500 before it will move up to the 7400-7500 region. But times like this it is hard to predict.

Next Thursday 5/3 14:00 free Technical Analysis Seminar with Sandy Jadeja from ODL Markets.

I will be there so come and say hello.

I guess this is the best news that an oil company share holder can get:

Shares in oil and gas producer Dana Petroleum rise as much as 8 percent after the company finds a new oil field at Rinnes in the North Sea that it says exceeded its expectations.

Morgan Stanley upgrades the stock to ‘overweight’ from ‘equalweight’ and says two wells at Rinnes could add 72 pence per share to its NAV of 1591 pence per share.

To be honsest I expected that the share will jump more than that. 3 weeks a ago a company in Israel discovered Gas field and the share rose 110% in one day.

But 8% in one day is not that bad… Anyway I do believe in Dana because they generate a lot of cash and they are debt free. I am here for the long run.

…and I am in the FTSE. 19:56 the Dow reached a new low 7150 and the FTSE was already 1.7% down so I thought to limit my risk and opened a long position on the FTSE. I was sure that the Dow will bounce back. But it didn’t. In fact it went down. Through all the day I was looking for the bottom. And each time it went more down. I even ordered to buy it at 7199 and canceled it because I had a bad feeling.

So what do you do with a trade that went against you? I left it open. After all I am only 15 points down, but at some point I was 33. But it is not promising. The S&P 500 broke the 750 support and the down lost 1200 points in less then 2 weeks. But markets don’t go down in straight line and I am sure I will be again in the money, but it is a risky business.

I am going to sleep not happy with my position which is not good…

This week I opened a CFD account with IG Index and their client service was very good. There was a problem with transferring money from my spread betting account to the CFD and they solved it quickly.

On the other hand I sent to them lists of questions last week and I am still waiting for answers.

I’ve also noticed that they don’t offer the best spread around. On shares Paddypower offers better spread on a random check. But IG Index platform is better…

Hi all

I hate stop losses. I had one on Rentokil at 39p the share went down to 37 triggered my stop loss and went all the way up to 44. Dam!

You can see it quite well on the graph. I should stop using stop loss tool. The way I see it, it is most of the time play into the spread betting firms than it really helps you.

From now on if I want to stop, I will do it by clicking on the ‘sell’ button. This wasn’t a good week for me. Sometimes I feel very confident that I can beat the market and sometimes not. This week I felt clueless. It is good indicator to stay out.

I thought to but the Dow today at 7350, but I wasn’t sure it is clever move so I didn’t. By the end of the day I will know if it was a smart move…

20:55 Binary bets on the Dow. 20 minutes ends at 21:00 and the Dow was 20 points up compared to 20:40. The bet that it will end up lower was very low – 2.7. This means that if in the next 5 minutes the Dow will go down another 20 points I will earn 97.3 points. Worth a try…

The end? it closed 10 points up… and I as predicted I lost.

No.

Both Citi and Bank of America were down heavily today because fresh fears of the ‘N’ word – nationalisation. And there is a good chance that this will happen. But those shares are already 90% from their peek. So not a lot left for the brave shorters.

Take a look Citi. At 2.51 you have 251 to gain. If they are going down they are all yours. But you have to remember that the government is not very keen doing so. If investors will think that it won’t happen then the share may look cheap and can jump easily to $5-$6. Meaning you will loss 250-350 points.

If you remember not long ago Barclays was on quite the same situation. The share went down to 45p then the bank said that the situation is not that bad (and proved it with 2008 report) and the share jumped to 120p.

So my advice leave the banks alone for a while. They jump up & down like crazy and the trend is down, but they are too low now to go short. This you should have done on the day Lehman Brothers said long goodbye.