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19th February
2009
written by spread bettor

No.

Both Citi and Bank of America were down heavily today because fresh fears of the ‘N’ word – nationalisation. And there is a good chance that this will happen. But those shares are already 90% from their peek. So not a lot left for the brave shorters.

Take a look Citi. At 2.51 you have 251 to gain. If they are going down they are all yours. But you have to remember that the government is not very keen doing so. If investors will think that it won’t happen then the share may look cheap and can jump easily to $5-$6. Meaning you will loss 250-350 points.

If you remember not long ago Barclays was on quite the same situation. The share went down to 45p then the bank said that the situation is not that bad (and proved it with 2008 report) and the share jumped to 120p.

So my advice leave the banks alone for a while. They jump up & down like crazy and the trend is down, but they are too low now to go short. This you should have done on the day Lehman Brothers said long goodbye.

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