Archive for November, 2009

For the last few weeks oil (light crude) is running between $77-$80 which gives nice setup for trading. I’ve played several time in this range and it worked quite well.

Yesterday I had an order to buy the black gold at $77. I woke up in the morning to see that I am in.
By 10:00 I was 50 points up so I moved my stop loss to 77.02. I was stopped out.
I was upset to see it up again to 77.50 and I put another order to buy it at 77. Soon I was in again but this time I was caching a falling knife. Before I knew it the oil was at 76. Few minutes after it was 75.55 my stop loss was at 75.40 and it seems very close.

It recovered a bit back to 76.10 just to go back to 75.80. Today it was the same story. Recover a bit to 76.20 just to move back to 75.80.
I was waiting for the US inventory data praying that I won’t stopped out. Minute before 15:30 the contract touched 75.49 and I though that I need a really good data to bail me out.

The data was a bit better than expected so the oil recovered. First to 76 and then to 77. Using the Euro gain against the Dollar the oil rose to 78 and I closed my position. What a roller coaster!

What I’ve learned from that? to use my brain more. It is good point to buy at 77 but first let it fall below then I should buy it on the way back. Lesson learnt.