Commodities

Silver plunges over 10%, while gold was over $20 cheaper and give a great opportunity to take advantage of such irrational market behaviour.

Even though I didn’t manage to get much from silver I still think it was a great trade as I managed to catch almost 2% move upward.

Bought silver at $43.35 at 03:56AM and closed the position at $44.14 at 5:ooAM. At the time of writing (7:52AM) silver is trading at $44.80, so some might say I had to be more patient… LOL… I’ll take 79 points for now.

It was a busy day today (Monday, 11 April). Had 5 trades today… I think it’s the biggest amount of trades I’ve ever had in one day.

It wan’t a very successful day and I ended up in the negative territory, I think I overtraded as I exited short trades on the Dow and GBP/USD too early.

Here’s the summary:

1. Sold GBP/USD at 1.6382 but stop loss kicked in at 1.6409.

2. Sold Dow at 12,426 but once again, the stop loss kicked in at 12,440.

3. Sold GBP/USED again at 1.6400 but unfortunately, I exited too early.

4. Sold the Dow again at 12,431 but again exited the trade too early at 12,410.

5. Finally, it was the worst move as I traded oil, tried to buy oil at 109.47 and stop loss hit at 109.47.

After careful consideration I decided to go with two trades:

1. Go long on GBP/USD after the disappointing Industrial Production figures. Bought at 1.6285 (stop loss at 1.6245), I think it will be difficult for anybody to go short there as no-one will want to be caught my BoE’s decision tomorrow.

2. Short on US Crude. Sold at 108.48 (stop loss at 109). The sell was mainly due to overbought status of oil and I expect some volatility before the US oil report.

One problem I have now is the exit points… I’m really confused with them and the idea is to exit oil before the announcement and when it’s even on the day. As for the GBP/USD I recon it might test the resistance level at 1.6400 again before the BoE announcement.

The price of oil could be set to rise even further beyond current high levels, as ongoing political and civil unrest across the Middle East, the world’s most prolific oil producing region, continues to spark fears of a supply shortage.

Essential in enabling manufacturing, distribution and fuel across sectors, fears over a potential shortage have led to increased demand now, as a result of both end users and speculators anticipating further difficulties, leading to a potentially volatile oil and commodities marketplace over at least the coming weeks.

With a series of Middle Eastern, oil producing countries experiencing pro-democracy uprisings and facing substantial pressure from at home and abroad, the political landscape of the region continues to look uncertain, which has led to increased concerns as to how this might affect oil supply and pricing in future.

A spokesperson for investment and trading site IndependentInvestor.co.uk said that while oil prices were currently being propped up by a fear of the future, traders shouldn’t expect a quick correction as events in the region continue to unfold.

“Oil prices tend to be highly sensitive to global affairs, not least in the Middle East which is responsible for vast swathes of total global output.  An essential ingredient for a successful economy, the price of oil has continued to rise in recent times, not least because of its natural scarcity and rising worldwide demand, which has sent pricing dramatically upwards.  And with fears now surrounding the political landscape of the Middle East and north Africa, prices look set to continue to rise overall for the foreseeable future.”

“Whether the current ongoing political situation in countries like Libya, Yemen and Bahrain resolves quickly or not would appear to be of little relevance to the price movements, which look set to continue during this period of uncertainty.  Until there can be assurances of continued supply and an end to the current upheaval, prices will continue to be supported at artificially high levels.”

IndependentInvestor.co.uk provides up to date commentary and analysis on the biggest issues affecting traders and the markets, in addition to providing a series of step-by-step resources, strategy guides and helpful techniques for traders looking to hone their skills and trade more successfully.

Trying to avoid unpredictable and costly moves on the stock markets I have been staying away from the markets last week. Thought I’d make up for this during this week and thus placed 4 orders… they are quite ambitious but if they hit I hope to lock nice profits.

Orders as follow:

1. Buy £3 FTSE100 at 5,780, stop loss: 5,755, limit: 5,850

2. Buy £1 Dax at 7,050, stop loss: 7,035, no limit

3. Sell £1 US Crude at 92.00, stop loss: 92.50, no limit

4. Sell £1 GBP/USD at 1.58180, stop loss: 1.58550, limit: 1.57280

Will cancel the orders tomorrow…