General

It seems that traders still expect much from the Fed on Monday 20/09/2010 as the Dow jumps over 100 points.

What else can the Fed offer? Rates are already rock bottom and Bernarke will once again deliver his cautious outlook where there are no clues on the economy or stock market future. Everybody expect something, even Dow is not volatile but stuck just over 10,700 mark.

Should we expect more volatility tomorrow?

Ever since I’ve started trading I am looking for good charting package. I tried Sharescope and eSignal and didn’t like the interface. At the moment I am using IG Markets advance charting. It is quite good but there is a big problem. Have a look on this chart of Rio Tinto

See the third candle from the right (where the red line is)? on this chart the high of Rio Tinto on the 4/8 was 3503 and it is outside bar of the candle before.

I am using a lot the inside & outside bar patterns so I would create an order to buy the next day at 3505 or so.

The problem is that this price is fake. Rio didn’t even came close to this price. You can see it on the chart from MoneyAM website:

The high of that day was 3440. Huge difference! So what is going on? From time to time IG and other spread betting providers have some problems with the data they get and the prices jump for a second much higher. This doesn’t affect your positions and orders but it does affect the chart you see.  So you can’t really trust them. It is like driving 80 MPH while your meter says you are only 70. Then try to explain it to the police officer.

It is a shame because their charting package is quite good and cheap (£30 a month free if you trade 4 times) but they don’t clean the data and it is a problem.

I am still looking for good package! Anyone?

For me this was the most difficult question. Many time I opened a trade with a stop loss too tight only for the stop order to trigger and then bounce again leaving myself upset!

The idea is to setup a stop loss not too close but not too far either. So how do you set your stop?

I take this idea from ‘Come into my trading room‘ by Alexander Elder. It calls ‘The chandelier exit’ and it helps you to setup a stop loss out from the market noise.

The formula is very easy:

(Highest value of the last 22 bars-3)*ATR(22)

for shorting is the same but with the lowest value of the last 22 bars.

The idea is to move your stop loss forward as long the trade goes in your direction. But Never move it down!

The code that I use to add it to IG index chart packaging is this:

RETURN highest[22](High)-3*AverageTrueRange[22](close)

and for short:

RETURN lowest[22](Low)+3*AverageTrueRange[22](close)

this really works well for me and saved me many time from being stopped out!

After a big drop yesterday the market is calm down a bit but I fill it is the quiet before the storm. It is 30 minutes before the opening in US and you can feel that everyone is waiting to see how the market in the states react to the Dubai news.

That’s why I had a quick trade today on Rio Tinto and run a way after a quick profit. I know bought it at 3040 and sold it on 3060. I know it could easliy end the day around 3200 but on the other side it can finish around 2900. Yes I can use a stop loss but if I need to carry the trade to next week the stop loss could worth nothing if the market opens sharply lower.

It is the same with oil and EUO/USD… I am waiting to see. No mater what I won’t trade in the first half hour. If by then I will see a sharp move I may jump on the train (hopefully it would not be too late!)

I am using Sharescope more than a month now, and I get used to it. I still think the interface is not the best and in fact I would love to give them a list with small list for things they need to improve.

But all in all it gives me valuable information and it helps me decide when and what to trade.

All in all it is recommended. I’ve tried some other products and for the price and coverage I think it is the best package out there.