Posts Tagged ‘FTSE’

After the big fall of the British banks, the oil companies have much more influence on the FTSE 100. This means that the $ against the £ and oil prices set the tone on the index.

Today the oil jumped 9% and the GBP/USD is 1.41 if the oil and the $ can keep this level I would say that the FTSE 100 can go back to 4000 mark very quickly. And in my opinion the oil price on the long run will go up. After all as far as I know it is the most needed commodity and although the green revolution there isn’t any decent substitute to the black oil. So perhaps the FTSE 100 is not all gloom and doom after all.

Hi all,

After black Monday where the Dow hit a new low, it seems that the market is searching for direction. It moves up and down between 7150 to 7400 and change direction very quickly.

This is a good market for short trade because no matter which direction you will choose there is a good chance that if it went against you, it will come back very soon (in a matter of hours in fact). You can see it clear on the graph:

it is the same story with the FTSE. The market is on hold and tries to learn what Obama will do next. But it seems that every time that Obama says something the Dow is down. It is not a bad strategy to sell when he speaks you just need to know his agenda.

I think that the Dow will test a new low around 6500 before it will move up to the 7400-7500 region. But times like this it is hard to predict.

…and I am in the FTSE. 19:56 the Dow reached a new low 7150 and the FTSE was already 1.7% down so I thought to limit my risk and opened a long position on the FTSE. I was sure that the Dow will bounce back. But it didn’t. In fact it went down. Through all the day I was looking for the bottom. And each time it went more down. I even ordered to buy it at 7199 and canceled it because I had a bad feeling.

So what do you do with a trade that went against you? I left it open. After all I am only 15 points down, but at some point I was 33. But it is not promising. The S&P 500 broke the 750 support and the down lost 1200 points in less then 2 weeks. But markets don’t go down in straight line and I am sure I will be again in the money, but it is a risky business.

I am going to sleep not happy with my position which is not good…

Yesterday I recommended to take the 4100 PUT option Feb 09 on the FTSE. The price was 59. Now it is 93 and it was during the day 141! those who took my advice had a nice profit and it could be more.

Did I take it? no. No? no. Why? because… it was late I was tired and god knows why.

Instead this morning I bought a 7740 CALL option on the DOW at 42. I though the DOW was way too down in the pre-hour market and I hoped it will bounced back. So I bought it when it was 7680. Now (19:30) hour an half before closing time my option worth nothing.

That’s ok sometime you lose sometimes you win. But my mistake was not to hedge my position. On that time I could buy the 7640 PUT at 55. Now it worth much more and it would cover my losses from the CALL. It is true that when you hedge your position you limit your profits but it is better to have little profits than big losses.

In the bottom line it is all depends what you are looking for. For me if I can make 10%-15% on each trade I am happy. For some they are looking for much more. But then when they lose they lose more.

Hi all,

if you believe that by the end of the week the FTSE 100 will head to the 4000 direction (which I do) this is the time for you to but the 4100 put of Feb-09 which expired on the 20/02 10:00.

At the moment the price is 59 while the FTSE stands on 4134. Another red day tomorrow and the option will worth much more. You can easily make 20%-30% with low risk.

For example in the morning when the FTSE was higher the price was 46 in the evening when the FTSE went down the price of this option jumped to 59. 28% in less than a day.